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2019 Silly Season

Discussion about: 2019 Silly Season
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#1
With the new trends about Ricciardo and Hartley popping up today, this came into my head. It's quite early, but here's my view on what could happen next season.

The main man is Ricciardo. The way I see it, he has three main options: Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. If he does stay at Red Bull, I think the only change within the top three would be Kimi retiring (more on that below). As I said before, I highly doubt he'll stay at Red Bull. Ferrari seems likely, but will Vettel accept him? And would Ferrari want two roosters? On the other hand they supposedly had the best car at the start if this year so it's a tempting choice. Moving to Mercedes, I imagine Hamilton will stay, and I think only Ricciardo will replace Bottas if anyone does. Mercedes is an attractive offer, and Hamilton might not be against having Ricciardo alongside him. But if Ricciardo does challenge Hamilton, sparks are going to fly and Mercedes have only just got out of that situation. Why go back into it? Either way, it'll affect next year hugely. As for Ferrari, I think Kimi has had enough and retire after this year even though he's doing well. Baring Ricciardo, I think Perez has a very good chance of moving there. No other free driver catches my eye. Perez would fit well there, he's fast but won't trouble Vettel too much.

Moving away from the big three, McLaren shouldn't see any change from my point of view. Though Norris might go in place of Vandoorne if he wins the F2 championship. Renault is an interesting one with Sainz. I don't think he will move unless Ricciardo goes. But if the Australian does go, then Sainz should get the call. But would Red Bull want the old tensions between Sainz and Verstappen to arise? Problem is, there's no other decent young Red Bull driver. I don't think Hartley will last the season and Gasly hasn't done anything noticeable bar Bahrain. Should Sainz go, who goes to Renault? I think if Ricciardo goes to Mercedes, Ocon may move to Renault. Reason being Ricciardo and Hamilton would probably be locked down for the next three seasons at least. Is Ocon really going to stay at Force India for another two years? By then Russell will be on the scene. So Ocon might grab the chance to drive for a manufacturer which is his best chance to get to the top. Bar that, it's anyone's guess. Aitken may go if he continues to do well in F2. Haas will surely get rid of Grosjean unless he does some comeback of the century. Magnussen has been hot headed and at times dangerous, but he's been quite fast so he would probably be kept. Leclerc would be a no brainer now since he's living up to his potential.

Towards the back, Force India is another team of interest. Perez might go to Ferrari but I think Ricciardo has him covered. Thinking about it now, he could go to Renault but maybe he's continuing to eye that Ferrari seat. Ocon is sey there unless he goes to Renault. Potential drivers for a place there would be Russell and possibly Wehrlein. Bottas may also go if he's replaced by Ricciardo and Perez goes to Ferrari. Toro Rosso are struggling with lack of RB junior drivers. Gasly may stay even if he hasn't dome exceptional. Hartley however I feel is gone. Wehrlein may go but do they really want a Mercedes junior and do Mercedes want to give their driver to Red Bull? Apart from him, the only other driver I can think of is Camera in F2. He has done decent and may be giving a second chance. Sauber will want one Ferrari junior and a experienced driver. I think Giovanazzi will be promoted again and Ericsson might stay for another year. What I would really like to see though is Kimi move there. I know I said he would retire ml but he might go to a smaller team with potential to get to the midfield and build them up like Massa and Williams. Speaking of Williams, not much to say about them but I think the driver with less money will get axed for Kubica.

Here's a combination of what I think and what I hope happens next year:
Mer: HAM/BOT
FER: VET/RIC
RBR: VER/SAI
MCL: ALO/NOR
REN: HUL/AIT
HAAS: MAG/LEC
FI: PER/OCO
STR: GAS/CAM
SAU: RAI/GIO
WIL: SIR or STR (whoever has more money)/KUB

Would love to hear other people's thoughts.
 
bogaaaa
Registered
#2
Good call vfan, l am not sure if FA will stay at macca, maybe RB would grab him if the price was right or reno.(l think FA would almost drive for nothing to get back into a top three team)
I dont think Sai has done enough so far this season to get the assumed RB nod if Ric leaves.
If lec keeps his current form he might get a huge promotion.
 
JohnH
Registered
#3
With the new trends about Ricciardo and Hartley popping up today, this came into my head. It's quite early, but here's my view on what could happen next season.

The main man is Ricciardo. The way I see it, he has three main options: Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. If he does stay at Red Bull, I think the only change within the top three would be Kimi retiring (more on that below). As I said before, I highly doubt he'll stay at Red Bull. Ferrari seems likely, but will Vettel accept him? And would Ferrari want two roosters? On the other hand they supposedly had the best car at the start if this year so it's a tempting choice. Moving to Mercedes, I imagine Hamilton will stay, and I think only Ricciardo will replace Bottas if anyone does. Mercedes is an attractive offer, and Hamilton might not be against having Ricciardo alongside him. But if Ricciardo does challenge Hamilton, sparks are going to fly and Mercedes have only just got out of that situation. Why go back into it? Either way, it'll affect next year hugely. As for Ferrari, I think Kimi has had enough and retire after this year even though he's doing well. Baring Ricciardo, I think Perez has a very good chance of moving there. No other free driver catches my eye. Perez would fit well there, he's fast but won't trouble Vettel too much.

Moving away from the big three, McLaren shouldn't see any change from my point of view. Though Norris might go in place of Vandoorne if he wins the F2 championship. Renault is an interesting one with Sainz. I don't think he will move unless Ricciardo goes. But if the Australian does go, then Sainz should get the call. But would Red Bull want the old tensions between Sainz and Verstappen to arise? Problem is, there's no other decent young Red Bull driver. I don't think Hartley will last the season and Gasly hasn't done anything noticeable bar Bahrain. Should Sainz go, who goes to Renault? I think if Ricciardo goes to Mercedes, Ocon may move to Renault. Reason being Ricciardo and Hamilton would probably be locked down for the next three seasons at least. Is Ocon really going to stay at Force India for another two years? By then Russell will be on the scene. So Ocon might grab the chance to drive for a manufacturer which is his best chance to get to the top. Bar that, it's anyone's guess. Aitken may go if he continues to do well in F2. Haas will surely get rid of Grosjean unless he does some comeback of the century. Magnussen has been hot headed and at times dangerous, but he's been quite fast so he would probably be kept. Leclerc would be a no brainer now since he's living up to his potential.

Towards the back, Force India is another team of interest. Perez might go to Ferrari but I think Ricciardo has him covered. Thinking about it now, he could go to Renault but maybe he's continuing to eye that Ferrari seat. Ocon is sey there unless he goes to Renault. Potential drivers for a place there would be Russell and possibly Wehrlein. Bottas may also go if he's replaced by Ricciardo and Perez goes to Ferrari. Toro Rosso are struggling with lack of RB junior drivers. Gasly may stay even if he hasn't dome exceptional. Hartley however I feel is gone. Wehrlein may go but do they really want a Mercedes junior and do Mercedes want to give their driver to Red Bull? Apart from him, the only other driver I can think of is Camera in F2. He has done decent and may be giving a second chance. Sauber will want one Ferrari junior and a experienced driver. I think Giovanazzi will be promoted again and Ericsson might stay for another year. What I would really like to see though is Kimi move there. I know I said he would retire ml but he might go to a smaller team with potential to get to the midfield and build them up like Massa and Williams. Speaking of Williams, not much to say about them but I think the driver with less money will get axed for Kubica.

Here's a combination of what I think and what I hope happens next year:
Mer: HAM/BOT
FER: VET/RIC
RBR: VER/SAI
MCL: ALO/NOR
REN: HUL/AIT
HAAS: MAG/LEC
FI: PER/OCO
STR: GAS/CAM
SAU: RAI/GIO
WIL: SIR or STR (whoever has more money)/KUB

Would love to hear other people's thoughts.
I also do not think Ricciardo will stay at RedBull.
I notice that Wolff has changed his position on Ricciardo at least publicly. Last week he said he definitely would be looking at Ricciardo for 2019. Now this may well be a bit of a ploy to give Hamilton a jolt to help him come to the negotiation table or it may be that there is a spot at Merc. Also Ferrari are I believe definitely looking at Ricciardo, but would they be prepared to change the driver standings within the team.?
I have read that there is no veto clause so Vettel would be bound by Marchionnes call.
The outside chance is Renault, they have made it very clear that they are interested in Ricciardo but I can't see them providing a championship car soon. Anyway the silly season is about to kick off so let the games begin. :)
 
GPfacts
Registered
#4
It really is hard to say, but I think Kimi will be the first to move...by mid-summer we should know whether his contract will be renewed or not. Then the fact remains that Leclerc is being groomed for Ferrari, although Scuderia would go against its own tradition to hire him after only one season in F1. On the other hand, if they get Ricciardo then they would have two drivers who can stay for five years and Leclerc's talent might go to waste...and I believe that Ferrari do want him and would not let that happen. Ocon, of course is a Mercedes driver, and if he comes around and beats Pérez convincingly enough, I think he may well replace Bottas. Which would leave Ricciardo no other options but to stay. But if he goes, Gasly may get the promotion, or possibly go to Renault in a swap with Sainz, who would get the RBR seat. As for all the others, I must admit that Vandoorne is not doing as well as I expected and may be vulnerable. In my opinion, Kubica's days as a race driver in F1 are gone. Alonso will stay at McLaren, because no other team would allow him to venture into WEC and IndyCar, which has apparently become important to him. And I would like to see Kvyat get the Haas seat, especially if Grosjean keeps under-performing.
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#5
@bogaaaa Alonso to Renault is a good shout, didn't think of that. Since he won his first and second championships with them that's a good possibility and I think he would do well with Hulkenburg. Red Bull would be a possible and a Verstappen-Alonso lineup would be OP. Though they historically hlgo with drive they has in their young driver academy so that might be a factor.

@JohnH If Wolf was trying to get Hamilton to speed up it certainly has worked (unfortunately, in my biased opinion). I don't think they would decide this early to sideline Bottas but it's possible. Also despite all the noise coming from Mercedes, they still haven't resigned Hamilton. Maybe he might be leaving next year? Very unlikely but possible. If Vettel doesn't have a veto then he's defiantly being considered by Ferrari and I imagine that might be his dream. Renault would be a step backwards, they will still take another 2 or 3 years to fight for the championship so he's better off with Ferrari or Mercedes.

@GPfacts Yep, Kimi is once again in the center seat. That point about Leclerc potentially being wasted because of a Ricciardo Vettel lineup is actually very possible. Best thing would be to promote him now, I think he could handle it. But Ferrari probably won't want him too early, though they have to be careful, they lost Perez by leaving him in Sauber when he could have been at Ferrari. Ocon might go to Mercedes but he has to do better, he did good last year but cost himself a podium by turning into Kimi. Kvyat to Haas is possible since he's a Ferrari development driver, but if they have any brains, they will try your get Leclerc in.
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#7
True though I'm not sure if Kimi would have made a difference in 2006 (2005 was a write off). Maybe while he was at Lotus Ferrari missed the opportunity because he was an utter beast back then
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#8
So a lot has happened since we last talked here:
Mercedes now look set to keep Bottas, he continues to do good despite being very unlucky.
Ferrari go from looking at Ricciardo to considering Leclerc. Indeed, apparently some say they have agreed on a two year contract.
Red Bull are also looking like they will keep Ricciardo, unless he does the idiotic move of moving to McLaren.
Renault are pretty much set
Haas are also set from the looks of it (Grosjean having a good race finally in Austria)
McLaren are looking into Kimi for some reason but the rumours are strong and Kimi hasn't denied it. Could see him move there, I think Alonso is now fed up with this and will move to IndyCar (unfortunately)
Force India are another team who look set
Toro Rosso as I mentioned a few times don't really have a junior driver so they may keep their current line up. I think they'll keep Gasly anyway, maybe replace Hartley with Gelal but I hope that doesn't happen.
Sauber may have to keep Ericsson since they need some experience and Lerclerc will move on. Giovanazzi is the obvious candidate, no one else pops out as a potential replacement
Williams I don't know. They need to get Kubica against the losers in EQUAL cars (Spain Kubica had a upgraded car and Austria he was running another program). If he's fastest then a Kubica/Russell is a no brainer.

Potential:

Mer: HAM/BOT
FER: VET/LEC
RBR: VER/RIC
MCL: RAI/VAN
REN: HUL/SAI
HAAS: MAG/GRO
FI: PER/OCO
STR: GAS/GEL
SAU: ERI/GIO
WIL: SIR/STR (its the modern Williams, do you seriously think they'll take the logical decision of getting a good young driver who has shown promise in junior categories i.e. Russell?)
 
JohnH
Registered
#9
As usual lots of rumors going around and some fait accompli. But one thing I'm just not sure about, the Hamilton/Merc deal. Wolff said he would make the announcement of their driver line up at Silverstone. Most people including me went straight to the conclusion that Hamilton has re-signed and thats the end of it.
But if that is the case why has Ricciardo not done the deal with RB? He gains nothing from waiting as he has no real bargaining power in that circumstance. So I'm wondering and sort of hoping that he knows something I don't.
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#10
@JohnH Interesting point, I heard Ricciardo said that Red Bull have made their case over why he should stay with them. Maybe he might be moving to Mercedes? Lots of vague points, but I think they'll be answered this weekend.
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#11
Well what a surprise, Hamilton is staying at Mercedes, I don't think ANYONE could have predicted that.

So then:
MER: HAM/---
FER: VET/---
RBR: VER/---
FI: ---/---
WIL: ---/---
REN: ---/---
STR: ---/---
HAAS: ---/---
MCL: ---/---
SAU: ---/---

FI want to keep Perez and Ocon
Red Bull will probably keep Ricciardo
Mercedes will probably keep Bott as
Williams will probably keep their two drivers
Ditto for Renault
Toro Rosso will probably keep Gasly
HAAS will probably keep Magnus sen
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#12
Bottas has been confirmed at Mercedes for next year, only one year contract though.
 
F1Fan1
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#13
I hope Lewis isn’t leaving Mercedes.

F1Fan1
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#14
So Force India are gone, I expect Stroll to buy them. It looks likely Kimi will stay another year with Marchionne gone. Ricciardo will also probably stay at Red Bull. Ocon is linked to Renault, leaving Sainz back at Toro Rosso. Perez would probably stay at Stroll racing with Stroll, unless he moves to Haas, where he replaces Grosjean, and Mazepin can go to Stroll racing. Of course Leclerc could go to Haas though. Alonso I think will stay at McLaren.
My predictions right now:
MER: HAM/BOT
FER: VET/RAI
RBR: VER/RIC
STR (Stroll racing): STR/PER
MCL: ALO/NOR
REN: HUL/OCO
HAAS: LEC/MAG
STR (Toro Rosso): SAI/GAS
SAU: ERI/GIO
WIL: SIR/KUB or RUS
 
JohnH
Registered
#15
Well this could end up big or amount to nothing. But I read earlier that Ricciardo has put off signing his contract with RB again. I know that RB were quite insistant that they wrap up negotiations before the summer break. But Ricciardo has told them he will think about it over the break, basically it's an I'll get back to you" situation. I'm thinking maybe Ferrari? I hope this is right as I think it will liven things up for 2019.
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#16
Well that throws everything into the air. If he is indeed not staying at Red Bull as you said it has to be Ferrari. Renault and McLaren are the only other options, but Renault are targeting Ocon to replace Sainz and getting rid of Hulkenburg would be stupid. I would like to think that Ricciardo has the brains to know that going to McLaren is a terrible move. Of course though, if he goes to Ferrari that reignites the Vettel-Ricciardo rivalry, which will be fascinating to see.
 
JohnH
Registered
#17
I agree Renault out, Mclaren why would you bother. It would not hurt Vettel to have a more competitive team mate. and it will spice up the WDC. But as I said it may amount to nothing, but fingers crossed this has some substance.
 
JohnH
Registered
#18
Ok this is the latest on Ricciardo . When asked whether he had a contract in his pocket heading into the summer break he replied: “Yeah it’s alright, it’s all good.
“It’ll definitely be done by Spa so whether it gets announced over the break or at Spa, but it’s just a little bit of fine-tuning. It’s all good. You will hear something soon I’m sure.”
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#19
Well he didn't actually say that it was Red Bull, so...
 
VFan17
Staff Team Pit Pass Registered
#20
OH MY DAYS HE'S MOVED TO RENAULT!!!!!!!!!!!